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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 7 games
57%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chen
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
50%

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Luna
Luna
YamSun · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 7 games
100%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Alexxo · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 374 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 348 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 223 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 279 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 148 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
200 picks · 109 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
195 picks · 255 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
188 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
TSM 75%B8 Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
46% · 112 games56% · 103 games
Monkey KingStoneBank
Monkey King
Leshrac
Leshracbryle-
46% · 150 games47% · 40 games
PudgeDendi
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
44% · 51 game53% · 151 game
SnapfireFunn1k
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaAri
53% · 130 games55% · 95 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Riki
RikiWhitemon
45% · 32 games52% · 86 games
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct36:10
TSM 74%B8 Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTimado
47% · 87 games52% · 191 game
LinaStoneBank
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbryle-
44% · 257 games49% · 144 games
BatriderDendi
Batrider
Lycan
Lycankasane
51% · 104 games56% · 230 games
BeastmasterFunn1k
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickAri
50% · 293 games51% · 238 games
MiranaMoOz
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
50% · 222 games48% · 160 games
Treant ProtectorLodine
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 89%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2