Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 16 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 15 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 11 games
Rubick
tOfu · 11 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 10 games
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 10 games
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
385 picks · 370 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 348 bans
Rubick
310 picks · 222 bans
Mirana
275 picks · 277 bans
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 148 bans
Snapfire
198 picks · 108 bans
Treant Protector
192 picks · 252 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:38
Into The Breach 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySupream^
Nature's ProphetAce
BroodmotherXibbe
Pudgedyrachyo
MarciOtaker
PangolierQuinn
TechiesImmersion
ClockwerktOfu
RubickKidaro
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 2prediction correct24:31
Into The Breach 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSupream^
Nature's ProphetAce
BroodmotherXibbe
KunkkaQuinn
DawnbreakerOtaker
Pudgedyrachyo
Skywrath MageImmersion
RubicktOfu
Treant ProtectorKidaro
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2