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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 17 games
76%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 13 games
54%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shanks · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
381 picks · 370 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 347 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 222 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 276 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 147 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
197 picks · 108 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
191 picks · 251 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 510 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total63% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:62
Execration 63%Fnatic 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Fnatic in 1:18:16.
Game 2prediction correct29:18
Execration 63%Fnatic 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 39:43.
Game 3prediction correct31:28
Execration 63%Fnatic 37%
The model gave 63% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 63%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3