Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 10 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
Rubick
PlayHard · 8 games
Talon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Q · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 13 games
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 12 games
Doomoften banned
23savage · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Hyde · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
378 picks · 370 bans
Tiny
338 picks · 345 bans
Rubick
304 picks · 221 bans
Mirana
275 picks · 273 bans
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 147 bans
Snapfire
197 picks · 108 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 249 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:30
Bleed Esports 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkJaCkky
Templar AssassinMikoto
RubickPlayHard
Keeper of the LightJabz
JakiroDuBu
Night Stalker23savage
49% · 128 games
TuskQ
45% · 90 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Game 2prediction correct25:42
Bleed Esports 43%Talon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
Templar AssassinMikoto
MarciPlayHard
Pudge23savage
SilencerDuBu
BatriderJabz
44% · 122 games
RubickQ
38% · 8 games
Elder TitanOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 66%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2