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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
72%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
50%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chen
Wij · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 8 games
38%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuma · 7 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 368 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 345 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
304 picks · 219 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 273 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
198 picks · 147 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
196 picks · 107 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
189 picks · 248 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 508 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:43
Thunder Awaken 39%Evil Geniuses 61%
The model gave 61% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
45% · 142 games51% · 115 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Broodmother
BroodmotherILICH-
49% · 121 game55% · 106 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
47% · 298 games49% · 219 games
SnapfireChris Luck
Snapfire
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAccel
51% · 205 games50% · 210 games
MarsMatthew
Mars
56% · 116 games
Crystal MaidenPanda
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:39
Thunder Awaken 37%Evil Geniuses 63%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
57% · 93 games50% · 93 games
Nature's ProphetPakazs
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
54% · 33 games54% · 124 games
LeshracChris Luck
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyMichael
52% · 413 games40% · 130 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAccel
49% · 123 games42% · 88 games
SilencerMatthew
Silencer
51% · 227 games
ClockwerkPanda
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 73%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2