Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMloss 1:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 366 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 339 bans
Rubick
301 picks · 219 bans
Mirana
273 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 146 bans
Snapfire
194 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 247 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance.LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
Alliance.LATAM 19%beastcoast 81%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:26.
Game 2prediction correct26:35
Alliance.LATAM 19%beastcoast 81%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 46:37.
Game 3prediction correct25:36
Alliance.LATAM 19%beastcoast 81%
The model gave 81% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:56.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 81%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3