Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Darksideloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 21 game
Miranaoften banned
Panto · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 14 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 12 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 364 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 335 bans
Rubick
299 picks · 217 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
191 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 245 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Darkside
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:26
One Move 40%Darkside 60%
The model gave 60% on Darkside — the game was taken by One Move in 42:20.
Game 2prediction missed29:16
One Move 40%Darkside 60%
The model gave 60% on Darkside — the game was taken by One Move in 40:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkside · 60%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2