European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 1:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hydraloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 8 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 8 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 364 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 335 bans
Rubick
299 picks · 217 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
191 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
187 picks · 245 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 505 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 82%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
D2 Hustlers 27%Hydra 73%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1