Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakiro
albinozebra · 32 games
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 11 games
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Speeed · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 7 games
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 362 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 333 bans
Rubick
297 picks · 217 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 272 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
191 picks · 106 bans
Treant Protector
186 picks · 244 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Thiuth Gaming 30%5RATFORCESTAFF 70%
The model gave 70% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 40:19.
Game 2prediction correct25:6
Thiuth Gaming 30%5RATFORCESTAFF 70%
The model gave 70% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 26:02.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 70%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2