Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 11 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 10 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
376 picks · 358 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 332 bans
Rubick
291 picks · 213 bans
Mirana
270 picks · 271 bans
Crystal Maiden
194 picks · 143 bans
Snapfire
188 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 499 bans
Treant Protector
179 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
OG 59%Entity 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:16.
Game 2prediction missed8:29
OG 59%Entity 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 24:28.
Game 3prediction correct24:10
OG 59%Entity 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3