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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MidOne · 6 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 28 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 22 games
41%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 13 games
31%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 355 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
287 picks · 213 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
269 picks · 271 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
194 picks · 143 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
186 picks · 107 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 499 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
179 picks · 238 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:25
Team SMG 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMidOne
47% · 275 games49% · 53 games
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Phantom Lancer
Pangolier
PangolierMoon
52% · 375 games47% · 492 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Rubick
RubickBoomy
46% · 292 games48% · 275 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Undying
UndyingAhFu
50% · 208 games54% · 232 games
MiranaXepher
Mirana
55% · 98 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Team SMG 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
55% · 230 games51% · 96 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Magnus
MagnusMidOne
48% · 52 games50% · 158 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickBoomy
50% · 355 games48% · 324 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAhFu
51% · 171 game45% · 176 games
SnapfirexNova
Snapfire
49% · 54 games
Nyx AssassinXepher
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct32:36
Team SMG 41%BOOM Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMoon
52% · 323 games53% · 9 games
Arc WardenNatsumi
Arc Warden
Magnus
MagnusMidOne
49% · 43 games54% · 106 games
Nature's ProphetFbz
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciBoomy
50% · 346 games42% · 143 games
BatriderYopaj
Batrider
Rubick
RubickAhFu
53% · 285 games48% · 508 games
TinyXepher
Tiny
50% · 231 game
SnapfirexNova
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3