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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Starsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Jupiter · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 4 games
100%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 18 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 352 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
283 picks · 211 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
272 picks · 268 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
195 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 107 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 501 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
177 picks · 235 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
Infinity Esports 50%Keyd Stars 50%
The model gave 50% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLeostyle
44% · 122 games53% · 52 games
SvenCostabile
Sven
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAdrx
49% · 75 games52% · 202 games
Pangolier4dr
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
52% · 162 games52% · 197 games
Death ProphetTavo
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickGenek
48% · 239 games50% · 46 games
Earth SpiritKingrd
Earth Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPrada
51% · 132 games48% · 233 games
SnapfireKJ
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed40:23
Infinity Esports 48%Keyd Stars 52%
The model gave 52% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAdrx
49% · 90 games48% · 87 games
Shadow FiendCostabile
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderLeostyle
50% · 170 games52% · 190 games
Mars4dr
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterFrank
40% · 114 games46% · 234 games
SnapfireTavo
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickGenek
50% · 211 games58% · 37 games
Spirit BreakerKingrd
Spirit Breaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPrada
55% · 110 games54% · 147 games
UndyingKJ
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 50%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2