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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ravensloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.

Ravens

Visage
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
d1smar · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 352 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 331 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
281 picks · 211 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
270 picks · 267 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
192 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
184 picks · 107 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 499 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
177 picks · 235 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Alliance.LATAM 55%Ravens 45%
The model gave 55% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Ravens in 29:06.
Game 2prediction missed35:23
Alliance.LATAM 55%Ravens 45%
The model gave 55% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Ravens in 51:45.
Game 3prediction missed8:29
Alliance.LATAM 55%Ravens 45%
The model gave 55% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Ravens in 31:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 55%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3