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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 12 games
42%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
yamich · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 14 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Xakoda · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
gpK~ · 12 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 352 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 331 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
281 picks · 209 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
269 picks · 267 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
192 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
183 picks · 107 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 499 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
176 picks · 234 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
One Move 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAfterLife
51% · 107 games54% · 121 game
Linakrylat
Lina
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
55% · 104 games47% · 187 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerAinkrad
44% · 24 games54% · 71 game
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGilgir
46% · 243 games50% · 167 games
Miranasayuw
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
53% · 218 games42% · 150 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct10:34
One Move 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
47% · 122 games52% · 192 games
Terrorbladekrylat
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyAinkrad
52% · 666 games52% · 294 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAfterLife
56% · 256 games45% · 312 games
SnapfireNoticed
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGilgir
54% · 56 games47% · 264 games
Clockwerksayuw
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
50% · 185 games46% · 223 games
HoodwinkDukalis
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 68%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2