Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Rubick
Alexxo · 9 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 7 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
Tinysignature
The Warden · 6 games
Tusk
Adzantick · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
373 picks · 354 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 334 bans
Rubick
279 picks · 207 bans
Mirana
271 picks · 266 bans
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
Snapfire
186 picks · 107 bans
Pangolier
181 picks · 501 bans
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Thiuth Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Thiuth Gaming 35%Wildcard Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 24:44.
Game 2prediction correct37:25
Thiuth Gaming 35%Wildcard Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 41:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 65%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2