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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TSMwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bryle- · 7 games
43%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
DuBu · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chen
DuBu · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
MoonMeander · 6 games
50%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 31 game
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 11 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 7 games
86%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 351 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
276 picks · 206 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
271 picks · 265 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 107 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 500 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 469 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
TSM 58%5RATFORCESTAFF 42%
The model gave 58% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 66 games46% · 77 games
Sniperdnm
Sniper
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkasane
54% · 118 games54% · 36 games
AxeSpeeed
Axe
Puck
Puckbryle-
57% · 121 game51% · 289 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
53% · 146 games47% · 125 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorWhitemon
40% · 76 games
Game 2prediction correct32:14
TSM 57%5RATFORCESTAFF 43%
The model gave 57% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkabryle-
44% · 54 games53% · 60 games
BroodmotherSpeeed
Broodmother
Lina
LinaTimado
44% · 103 games56% · 26 games
Svendnm
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
40% · 27 games56% · 173 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Riki
RikiAri
52% · 19 games52% · 23 games
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
Vengeful Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
48% · 79 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 69%
Series resultTSM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2