Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 6 games
Viperoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Save- · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Ainkrad · 3 games
Marcioften banned
Bignum · 3 games
Rubick
Save- · 3 games
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 19 games
Mirana
Panto · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 15 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
370 picks · 350 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 333 bans
Rubick
275 picks · 202 bans
Mirana
268 picks · 264 bans
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
Snapfire
183 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
173 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total82% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:6
BETBOOM TEAM 68%One Move 32%
The model gave 68% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracgpK~
Drow RangerMunkushi~
SniperPure~
BatriderAinkrad
TidehunterNightfall
SnapfireAfterLife
Shadow DemonSave-
RubickGilgir
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
ClockwerkPanto
Game 2prediction correct46:36
BETBOOM TEAM 66%One Move 34%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:14:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperPure~
PangolierAinkrad
DoomNightfall
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
Queen of PaingpK~
TimbersawAfterLife
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
TinyGilgir
HoodwinkSave-
Treant ProtectorPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 82%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2