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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 18 games
78%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%

Nigma Galaxy

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 7 games
14%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
GH · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 346 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 333 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
268 picks · 200 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
267 picks · 261 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 145 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 106 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 501 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
175 picks · 462 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 22%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
Team Liquid 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
50% · 126 games48% · 171 game
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Visage
Visagezai
61% · 87 games50% · 195 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Tusk
TuskNisha
49% · 216 games48% · 146 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
50% · 225 games53% · 162 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
45% · 201 game47% · 181 game
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct37:15
Team Liquid 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
53% · 204 games50% · 195 games
LinaSumaiL
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
44% · 254 games44% · 112 games
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Tidehunter
Magnus
Magnuszai
50% · 48 games54% · 305 games
MarsATF
Mars
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
51% · 239 games45% · 148 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 230 games59% · 215 games
MarciKuroKy
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2