Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 13 games
Viperoften banned
ATF · 12 games
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
Into The Breach
Tinysignature
Ari · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 16 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 12 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 11 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
367 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 333 bans
Rubick
268 picks · 198 bans
Mirana
267 picks · 260 bans
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
185 picks · 105 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 501 bans
Ember Spirit
175 picks · 461 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
OG 71%Into The Breach 29%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYuragi
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Invokerbzm
DawnbreakerXibbe
Sand KingDM
Dragon KnightSupream^
Keeper of the LightTaiga
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Treant ProtectorMisha
RikiImmersion
Game 2prediction correct30:12
OG 69%Into The Breach 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYuragi
Nature's ProphetOtaker
TidehunterDM
BatriderSupream^
Puckbzm
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
ZeusTaiga
Shadow DemonImmersion
OmniknightMisha
DisruptorKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 83%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2