Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
Tiny
Topson · 10 games
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
ace12 · 8 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
364 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 331 bans
Mirana
267 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 198 bans
Crystal Maiden
200 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
185 picks · 105 bans
Pangolier
178 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
175 picks · 457 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
Bleed Esports 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautJaCkky
LinaSkem
PhoenixPlayHard
ViperForce
EnchantressDuBu
RubickRoddgeee
47% · 114 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct16:31
Bleed Esports 47%Geek Fam 53%
The model gave 53% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 57:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerJaCkky
Nature's ProphetSkem
RubickPlayHard
PhoenixForce
Treant ProtectorDuBu
TuskNARMAN
49% · 73 games
DisruptorRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 58%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2