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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 16 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 11 games
73%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 11 games
64%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palos · 9 games
67%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 345 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 331 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
266 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 198 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
183 picks · 106 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
177 picks · 501 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 458 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
Execration 41%Blacklist International 59%
The model gave 59% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 43:14.
Game 2prediction missed31:30
Execration 41%Blacklist International 59%
The model gave 59% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 55:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 59%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2