Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Ravens
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
Tiny
d1smar · 10 games
Rubick
d1smar · 7 games
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
365 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 330 bans
Mirana
266 picks · 254 bans
Rubick
262 picks · 198 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 145 bans
Snapfire
182 picks · 107 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 499 bans
Ember Spirit
174 picks · 461 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:39
beastcoast 86%Ravens 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Ravens in 37:54.
Game 2prediction missed35:13
beastcoast 86%Ravens 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Ravens in 29:33.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 86%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2