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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 11 games
73%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Prada · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 344 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 330 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
266 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
261 picks · 196 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 145 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
181 picks · 106 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 498 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
174 picks · 459 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
Keyd Stars 35%Evil Geniuses 65%
The model gave 65% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCostabile
48% · 91 game53% · 101 game
LinaPakazs
Lina
Tusk
Tusk4dr
49% · 317 games50% · 129 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Broodmother
BroodmotherTavo
51% · 89 games47% · 315 games
TinyChris Luck
Tiny
Omniknight
OmniknightKJ
54% · 60 games59% · 39 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
Techies
TechiesKingrd
45% · 53 games47% · 26 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct13:47
Keyd Stars 31%Evil Geniuses 69%
The model gave 69% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCostabile
48% · 95 games55% · 60 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
47% · 241 game56% · 204 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireTavo
50% · 256 games53% · 129 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomKingrd
46% · 117 games50% · 107 games
SilencerPanda
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
50% · 98 games46% · 307 games
MarsMatthew
Mars
Game 3prediction correct23:38
Keyd Stars 34%Evil Geniuses 66%
The model gave 66% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
53% · 138 games45% · 177 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4dr
52% · 105 games58% · 121 game
Primal BeastWisper
Primal Beast
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTavo
45% · 216 games50% · 180 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskKingrd
50% · 258 games53% · 167 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
51% · 149 games44% · 221 game
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 82%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3