Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thiuth Gamingwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thiuth Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Snapfire
Wij · 5 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
357 picks · 343 bans
Tiny
332 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
262 picks · 254 bans
Rubick
256 picks · 193 bans
Crystal Maiden
199 picks · 143 bans
Snapfire
179 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
177 picks · 497 bans
Ember Spirit
172 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 30%
Hero pool strength58% Thiuth Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Thiuth Gaming 43%Lucky Bird 57%
The model gave 57% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 41:51.
Game 2prediction correct35:26
Thiuth Gaming 43%Lucky Bird 57%
The model gave 57% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 37:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 57%
Series resultThiuth Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2