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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 17 games
76%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%

Into The Breach

Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 16 games
69%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 12 games
75%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 10 games
80%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
80%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
56%
Slark
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 341 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 326 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
258 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
252 picks · 189 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
199 picks · 142 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 104 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
176 picks · 495 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
169 picks · 454 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:19
Team Liquid 73%Into The Breach 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
40% · 39 games53% · 92 games
LycanOtaker
Lycan
Tusk
TuskNisha
47% · 126 games53% · 163 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
49% · 112 games58% · 40 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
50% · 112 games52% · 38 games
RikiImmersion
Riki
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
46% · 54 games50% · 110 games
PhoenixKidaro
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct42:10
Team Liquid 75%Into The Breach 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SnipermiCKe
52% · 37 games56% · 91 game
Nature's ProphetXibbe
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderNisha
46% · 101 game59% · 151 game
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
56% · 178 games43% · 112 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
47% · 119 games44% · 61 game
Earth SpiritImmersion
Earth Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBoxi
54% · 66 games43% · 86 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2