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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Xepher · 7 games
43%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 28 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 21 game
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 12 games
25%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 341 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 325 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
256 picks · 252 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
248 picks · 188 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
198 picks · 142 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 104 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
176 picks · 491 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
169 picks · 450 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:30
Bleed Esports 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
51% · 125 games50% · 8 games
Arc WardenNatsumi
Arc Warden
Tiny
TinyPlayHard
49% · 435 games47% · 135 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Disruptor
DisruptorDuBu
52% · 110 games49% · 65 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
54% · 221 game
MiranaXepher
Mirana
47% · 241 game
TuskxNova
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed24:7
Bleed Esports 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
51% · 90 games63% · 58 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Rubick
RubickPlayHard
50% · 170 games52% · 79 games
Keeper of the LightYopaj
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressDuBu
41% · 140 games52% · 84 games
KunkkaFbz
Kunkka
50% · 97 games
Crystal MaidenXepher
Crystal Maiden
48% · 82 games
Treant ProtectorxNova
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed25:22
Bleed Esports 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
57% · 117 games41% · 40 games
Shadow FiendNatsumi
Shadow Fiend
Rubick
RubickPlayHard
50% · 265 games50% · 70 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Omniknight
OmniknightDuBu
51% · 57 games49% · 63 games
BatriderYopaj
Batrider
52% · 46 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
46% · 220 games
TinyXepher
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 73%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3