?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ravensloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Prada · 6 games
67%

Ravens

Visage
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
d1smar · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 341 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 334 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
256 picks · 254 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 188 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 149 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
183 picks · 503 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
182 picks · 106 bans
48%
Silencer
Silencer
175 picks · 196 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Ravens
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
Evil Geniuses 71%Ravens 29%
The model gave 71% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPakazs
62% · 95 games55% · 108 games
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChris Luck
51% · 307 games50% · 127 games
BroodmotherBenjaz
Broodmother
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
40% · 270 games49% · 527 games
TinyPiPi
Tiny
Rubick
RubickMatthew
50% · 272 games46% · 267 games
Snapfired1smar
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
54% · 155 games46% · 70 games
Ogre MagiCara
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Evil Geniuses 72%Ravens 28%
The model gave 72% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPakazs
33% · 146 games55% · 46 games
Shadow FiendDaaD-
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
46% · 118 games51% · 151 game
PangolierPiPi
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherChris Luck
50% · 110 games49% · 175 games
Death ProphetBenjaz
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanda
52% · 115 games54% · 47 games
Pudged1smar
Pudge
Riki
RikiMatthew
53% · 32 games61% · 102 games
Crystal MaidenCara
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 87%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2