?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
72%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Panda · 11 games
45%

Infinity Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Jupiter · 5 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
80%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 339 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 333 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
256 picks · 254 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
247 picks · 188 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 149 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 502 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
181 picks · 106 bans
48%
Silencer
Silencer
175 picks · 196 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:31
Thunder Awaken 56%Infinity Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 48:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
47% · 77 games48% · 137 games
LinaParker
Lina
Broodmother
BroodmotherILICH-
53% · 105 games57% · 121 game
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickMichael
55% · 332 games47% · 216 games
SnapfireLeostyle
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAccel
42% · 336 games52% · 338 games
TinyGenek
Tiny
52% · 38 games
Ogre MagiPrada
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct42:13
Thunder Awaken 55%Infinity Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSmiling Knight
51% · 174 games52% · 164 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
48% · 290 games51% · 239 games
MarsLeostyle
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMichael
44% · 132 games55% · 59 games
BroodmotherFrank
Broodmother
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAccel
48% · 146 games53% · 191 game
RubickGenek
Rubick
49% · 89 games
Crystal MaidenPrada
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 61%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2