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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
so bad · 7 games
86%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
yamich · 20 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 13 games
85%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Xakoda · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 339 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 329 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
255 picks · 254 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
240 picks · 187 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 506 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
182 picks · 104 bans
48%
Silencer
Silencer
179 picks · 198 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:23
Nemiga Gaming 51%Virtus.pro 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
53% · 107 games47% · 59 games
Troll Warlordkrylat
Troll Warlord
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
48% · 254 games50% · 248 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCorrupted
56% · 160 games53% · 29 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
44% · 58 games49% · 183 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
46% · 169 games54% · 229 games
MiranaDukalis
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed47:24
Nemiga Gaming 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 55:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
49% · 196 games46% · 67 games
Drow Rangerkrylat
Drow Ranger
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCorrupted
54% · 122 games51% · 215 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
44% · 103 games50% · 248 games
Death ProphetNoticed
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
54% · 277 games47% · 171 game
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Undying
Undyingso bad
55% · 201 game49% · 198 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct3:21
Nemiga Gaming 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
54% · 107 games52% · 57 games
Linakrylat
Lina
Pugna
PugnaMalr1ne
52% · 84 games49% · 41 game
Nature's ProphetNoticed
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
45% · 68 games56% · 117 games
Death ProphetSquad1x
Death Prophet
Techies
TechiesHellscream
47% · 46 games49% · 106 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Silencer
Silencerso bad
45% · 88 games50% · 72 games
MarciDukalis
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3