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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Antarctic Penguinswin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Antarctic Penguins

Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Somnus · 13 games
77%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 10 games
30%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kaka · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 8 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 8 games
75%
Viper
Vipersignature
Chalice · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Chalice · 7 games
29%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
TK · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 4 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
White丶Album · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 339 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 329 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
255 picks · 254 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
240 picks · 187 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 506 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
182 picks · 104 bans
48%
Silencer
Silencer
179 picks · 198 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Antarctic Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Antarctic Penguins 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendeGo
58% · 135 games45% · 42 games
Drow RangerUlu
Drow Ranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlaCrity
55% · 151 game38% · 101 game
Ember SpiritWhite丶Album
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFelixCiaoBa
50% · 116 games49% · 54 games
Broodmother生死
Broodmother
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXCJ
52% · 134 games49% · 119 games
UndyingRedPanda
Undying
50% · 220 games
TinyTK
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Antarctic Penguins 64%Aster.Aries 36%
The model gave 64% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SireneGo
56% · 87 games59% · 37 games
NecrophosWhite丶Album
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAlaCrity
55% · 69 games51% · 87 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Rubick
RubickFelixCiaoBa
44% · 142 games47% · 83 games
Broodmother生死
Broodmother
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenXCJ
47% · 104 games43% · 28 games
LionTK
Lion
51% · 167 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct36:39
Antarctic Penguins 62%Aster.Aries 38%
The model gave 62% on Antarctic Penguins — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 1:17:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAlaCrity
58% · 302 games51% · 106 games
BatriderWhite丶Album
Batrider
Drow Ranger
Drow RangereGo
50% · 53 games53% · 145 games
DawnbreakerUlu
Dawnbreaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXCJ
47% · 137 games44% · 235 games
Mars生死
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFelixCiaoBa
45% · 236 games50% · 161 game
RubickTK
Rubick
53% · 81 game
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAntarctic Penguins · 72%
Series resultAntarctic Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3