Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
Svensignature
Fly · 8 games
Tusk
Cr1t- · 8 games
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Nightfall · 6 games
Marcisignature
Cr1t- · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
358 picks · 341 bans
Tiny
350 picks · 333 bans
Mirana
257 picks · 253 bans
Rubick
238 picks · 190 bans
Crystal Maiden
214 picks · 149 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 522 bans
Snapfire
190 picks · 109 bans
Silencer
187 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength64% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Shopify Rebellion 75%Lucky Bird 25%
The model gave 75% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSabeRLight-
LinaRises
TerrorbladeArteezy
KunkkaBlackSoul
TuskAbed
SnapfireWij
RubickCr1t-
Ogre MagiYadomi
MiranaFly
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Shopify Rebellion 74%Lucky Bird 26%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaArteezy
BloodseekerRises
TinyAbed
Death ProphetBlackSoul
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
HoodwinkWij
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Crystal MaidenYadomi
SvenFly
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 87%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2