Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Tusksignature
Nine · 11 games
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 9 games
Into The Breach
Tinysignature
Ari · 17 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 16 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 11 games
Lycansignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Pudgesignature
Otaker · 10 games
Dazzle
Kidaro · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Slarksignature
Otaker · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
356 picks · 339 bans
Tiny
349 picks · 333 bans
Mirana
256 picks · 249 bans
Rubick
233 picks · 189 bans
Crystal Maiden
213 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 520 bans
Snapfire
187 picks · 109 bans
Silencer
186 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:51
Tundra Esports 76%Into The Breach 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom33
Nature's ProphetOtaker
PangolierNine
SnapfireXibbe
LifestealerSkiter
BatriderSupream^
MiranaSaksa
Treant ProtectorKidaro
ClockwerkSneyking
RubickImmersion
Game 2prediction correct30:14
Tundra Esports 72%Into The Breach 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSkiter
TerrorbladeOtaker
Broodmother33
TinySupream^
ZeusNine
EnigmaXibbe
RikiSaksa
Earth SpiritImmersion
RubickSneyking
PhoenixKidaro
Game 3prediction correct28:17
Tundra Esports 74%Into The Breach 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 59:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
LeshracSupream^
Tidehunter33
SpectreOtaker
ZeusNine
BroodmotherXibbe
RubickSneyking
SnapfireImmersion
RikiSaksa
UndyingKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3