Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 21 game
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 16 games
Tusksignature
Boxi · 16 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
Snapfire
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
355 picks · 338 bans
Tiny
348 picks · 333 bans
Mirana
255 picks · 249 bans
Rubick
233 picks · 187 bans
Crystal Maiden
213 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 518 bans
Silencer
186 picks · 205 bans
Snapfire
186 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:8
Team Liquid 68%Entity 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:04.
Game 2prediction correct43:16
Team Liquid 68%Entity 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2