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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 13 games
46%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 12 games
75%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
64%

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 337 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 333 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
254 picks · 249 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
232 picks · 186 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 148 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 516 bans
52%
Silencer
Silencer
186 picks · 205 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 108 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:32
OG 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYuragi
54% · 124 games47% · 101 game
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
52% · 62 games51% · 66 games
Pudgedyrachyo
Pudge
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDM
49% · 162 games45% · 97 games
ZeusQuinn
Zeus
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMisha
45% · 15 games51% · 202 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Tusk
TuskTaiga
54% · 199 games46% · 96 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct30:24
OG 52%Gaimin Gladiators 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
64% · 97 games56% · 103 games
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
44% · 195 games47% · 231 game
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireDM
46% · 255 games49% · 113 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTaiga
48% · 121 game49% · 250 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorMisha
50% · 155 games46% · 126 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2