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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 13 games
46%
Visage
Visageoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
23savage · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 335 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
351 picks · 336 bans
48%
Mirana
Mirana
254 picks · 247 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
233 picks · 187 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
216 picks · 148 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 525 bans
52%
Silencer
Silencer
188 picks · 211 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
188 picks · 109 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:15
Talon Esports 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:45.
Game 2prediction correct13:27
Talon Esports 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 37:26.
Game 3prediction correct20:37
Talon Esports 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 1:06:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3