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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 16 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 9 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
72%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 13 games
54%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panda · 12 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
361 picks · 341 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 337 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
256 picks · 248 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
234 picks · 189 bans
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 149 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 534 bans
52%
Silencer
Silencer
193 picks · 218 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
192 picks · 114 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:35
Keyd Stars 35%Thunder Awaken 65%
The model gave 65% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 1:05:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCostabile
42% · 222 games58% · 64 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4dr
49% · 262 games51% · 379 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTavo
48% · 263 games56% · 347 games
MiranaMichael
Mirana
Tusk
TuskKingrd
47% · 235 games47% · 327 games
SnapfireAccel
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
49% · 135 games
Game 2prediction missed36:14
Keyd Stars 37%Thunder Awaken 63%
The model gave 63% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 28:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaCostabile
55% · 100 games50% · 140 games
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
Wraith King
Tusk
Tusk4dr
54% · 174 games45% · 84 games
Nature's ProphetILICH-
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireTavo
46% · 183 games48% · 245 games
Ember SpiritMichael
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomKingrd
52% · 129 games47% · 158 games
Treant ProtectorAccel
Treant Protector
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKJ
54% · 41 game
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 77%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2