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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 9 games
22%
Visage
Visagesignature
laise · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
swedenstrong · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
swedenstrong · 8 games
13%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
63%

One Move

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 340 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 337 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
254 picks · 247 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
229 picks · 189 bans
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 149 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 532 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
191 picks · 113 bans
46%
Silencer
Silencer
189 picks · 218 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Natus Vincere 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by One Move in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingV-Tune
48% · 61 game45% · 106 games
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
52% · 332 games44% · 108 games
TidehunterAfterLife
Tidehunter
Pangolier
Pangolierlaise
55% · 210 games52% · 114 games
Primal BeastAinkrad
Primal Beast
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
56% · 48 games51% · 255 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerMalady
53% · 81 game45% · 149 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Natus Vincere 52%One Move 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
51% · 51 game52% · 123 games
LinaMunkushi~
Lina
Pugna
Pugnanicky`cool
55% · 117 games58% · 95 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritlaise
47% · 26 games44% · 193 games
MarsAfterLife
Mars
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
49% · 239 games47% · 125 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
47% · 212 games48% · 109 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct41:12
Natus Vincere 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
49% · 123 games45% · 21 game
SpectreMunkushi~
Spectre
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
63% · 106 games44% · 151 game
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Enigma
Enigmalaise
58% · 190 games49% · 83 games
ViperAfterLife
Viper
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
50% · 328 games51% · 403 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Silencer
SilencerMalady
47% · 101 game44% · 190 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3