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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Snapfire
Snapfire
Alexxo · 15 games
53%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Alexxo · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Sammyboy · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Luna
Luna
YamSun · 8 games
25%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Sammyboy · 6 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Sammyboy · 6 games
17%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 6 games
100%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 8 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 6 games
100%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Speeed · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 349 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 339 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
254 picks · 247 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
232 picks · 189 bans
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
231 picks · 149 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 550 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
204 picks · 427 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
203 picks · 114 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
B8 Esports 36%5RATFORCESTAFF 64%
The model gave 64% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightStoneBank
50% · 124 games53% · 103 games
Ursadnm
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawFunn1k
52% · 96 games38% · 55 games
UnderlordSpeeed
Underlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
52% · 36 games41% · 93 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickMoOz
56% · 122 games50% · 172 games
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroLodine
57% · 45 games
Game 2prediction missed35:19
B8 Esports 37%5RATFORCESTAFF 63%
The model gave 63% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 55:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaStoneBank
46% · 45 games52% · 50 games
Svendnm
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
50% · 62 games48% · 203 games
BeastmasterSpeeed
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFunn1k
57% · 17 games49% · 221 game
HoodwinkCTOMAHEH1
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyMoOz
53% · 297 games48% · 87 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Mirana
MiranaLodine
54% · 140 games
Game 3prediction correct12:26
B8 Esports 36%5RATFORCESTAFF 64%
The model gave 64% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaStoneBank
52% · 51 game54% · 63 games
Slarkdnm
Slark
Mars
MarsFunn1k
50% · 141 game53% · 197 games
BeastmasterSpeeed
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDendi
56% · 66 games50% · 89 games
Silenceralbinozebra
Silencer
Snapfire
SnapfireMoOz
41% · 179 games47% · 244 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaLodine
49% · 156 games
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 75%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3