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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 8 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nightfall · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Cr1t- · 6 games
67%

Wildcard Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
Alexxo · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
iAnnihilate · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
The Warden · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 348 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 338 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
252 picks · 247 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
231 picks · 188 bans
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
230 picks · 148 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 549 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
204 picks · 427 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
202 picks · 113 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:1
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 15:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidArteezy
50% · 121 game52% · 160 games
LinaArk
Lina
Tusk
TuskAbed
49% · 179 games50% · 245 games
Death ProphetSunlight
Death Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
45% · 47 games49% · 120 games
Primal BeastBabitich
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 140 games52% · 35 games
Spirit BreakerFrancisLee
Spirit Breaker
Mirana
MiranaFly
48% · 174 games55% · 101 game
Naga SirenSammyboy
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct35:5
Shopify Rebellion 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArteezy
54% · 110 games49% · 143 games
PudgeArk
Pudge
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
52% · 89 games50% · 216 games
LinaBabitich
Lina
Tiny
TinyAbed
51% · 509 games45% · 340 games
SnapfireSunlight
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaFly
46% · 200 games52% · 174 games
Crystal MaidenSammyboy
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
50% · 235 games51% · 270 games
ClockwerkFrancisLee
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2