Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aster.Aries
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 9 games
Tusk
White丶Album · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
Marcioften banned
生死 · 4 games
Tiny
TK · 4 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
359 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
345 picks · 336 bans
Mirana
245 picks · 246 bans
Crystal Maiden
227 picks · 147 bans
Rubick
225 picks · 183 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 549 bans
Leshrac
203 picks · 421 bans
Snapfire
199 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
Aster.Aries 49%Invictus Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 53:34.
Game 2prediction correct15:37
Aster.Aries 49%Invictus Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 1:00:08.
Game 3prediction correct19:34
Aster.Aries 49%Invictus Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 48:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 51%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3