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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 24 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 15 games
87%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
79%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%

One Move

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Panto · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 13 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Panto · 11 games
91%
Marci
Marcisignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 336 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
245 picks · 246 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
227 picks · 147 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
225 picks · 183 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 549 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
203 picks · 421 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
199 picks · 111 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Team Spirit 72%One Move 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYatoro
54% · 115 games54% · 169 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
46% · 229 games55% · 138 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 73 games51% · 203 games
TuskAinkrad
Tusk
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 319 games47% · 437 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireMiposhka
48% · 403 games51% · 192 games
MiranaPanto
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed15:46
Team Spirit 70%One Move 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by One Move in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
52% · 47 games41% · 52 games
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Faceless Void
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
49% · 248 games50% · 194 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
41% · 64 games53% · 74 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Mirana
MiranaMira
51% · 313 games54% · 170 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
52% · 110 games54% · 292 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct43:25
Team Spirit 70%One Move 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
52% · 86 games53% · 48 games
SniperMunkushi~
Sniper
Doom
DoomCollapse
44% · 129 games50% · 59 games
Primal BeastAinkrad
Primal Beast
Zeus
ZeusLarl
43% · 92 games54% · 203 games
Death ProphetAfterLife
Death Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
49% · 120 games56% · 184 games
TuskGilgir
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
45% · 172 games53% · 105 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3