Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSolitudeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tiny
BoBoKa · 32 games
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Ori · 18 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 13 games
Visageoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 11 games
Solitude
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Son GoKu · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
7e · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
Son GoKu · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Son GoKu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
358 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
345 picks · 336 bans
Mirana
245 picks · 246 bans
Crystal Maiden
226 picks · 147 bans
Rubick
225 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 548 bans
Leshrac
203 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
198 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
Team Aster 85%Solitude 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 22:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMonet
SilencerSon GoKu
Ember SpiritXwy
SnapfireBoBoKa
BrewmasterXxs
SvenFantasy
Game 2prediction correct40:15
Team Aster 85%Solitude 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMonet
Centaur WarrunnerSon GoKu
ViperXxs
Void SpiritXwy
TinyBoBoKa
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 97%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2