Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 28 games
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 8 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 6 games
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 6 games
Undyingsignature
Speeed · 6 games
Lucky Bird
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
Tiny
BlackSoul · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Puckoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
356 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
344 picks · 334 bans
Mirana
245 picks · 246 bans
Crystal Maiden
226 picks · 147 bans
Rubick
222 picks · 180 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 548 bans
Leshrac
202 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
195 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength65% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:5
5RATFORCESTAFF 65%Lucky Bird 35%
The model gave 65% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirendnm
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
BeastmasterSpeeed
Drow RangerRises
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
EnchantressYadomi
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
RubickWij
Game 2prediction correct38:15
5RATFORCESTAFF 63%Lucky Bird 37%
The model gave 63% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursadnm
PuckBlackSoul
Legion CommanderSpeeed
LinaRises
RubickCTOMAHEH1
PhoenixWij
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Ogre MagiYadomi
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 72%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2