?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 25 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
iNSaNiA · 14 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 15 games
73%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
77%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 12 games
83%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 10 games
90%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 343 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 334 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
245 picks · 245 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
225 picks · 147 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
219 picks · 180 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 547 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
201 picks · 418 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
194 picks · 111 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:23
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
54% · 75 games48% · 94 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
49% · 121 game52% · 127 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
58% · 35 games49% · 177 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Rubick
RubickBoxi
51% · 178 games47% · 40 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
46% · 131 game49% · 102 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed41:11
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
50% · 143 games53% · 108 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Tusk
TuskNisha
53% · 304 games46% · 138 games
KunkkaNine
Kunkka
Snapfire
Snapfirezai
51% · 344 games49% · 215 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
47% · 267 games52% · 118 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Riki
RikiBoxi
43% · 28 games52% · 507 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2