Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fnaticloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
353 picks · 341 bans
Tusk
341 picks · 332 bans
Mirana
242 picks · 244 bans
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 147 bans
Rubick
217 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 546 bans
Leshrac
198 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
191 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:29
Blacklist International 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 31:21.
Game 2prediction correct35:12
Blacklist International 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 28:35.
Game 3prediction correct24:10
Blacklist International 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 36:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3