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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
55%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hishge · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
eleven · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageoften banned
ace12 · 8 games
38%
Visage
Visageoften banned
eleven · 8 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 20 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 12 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
351 picks · 340 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 332 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
238 picks · 242 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 146 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
215 picks · 174 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 545 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
198 picks · 417 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
189 picks · 225 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Geek Fam 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkem
43% · 54 games49% · 105 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Doom
DoomForce
51% · 170 games52% · 79 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
46% · 92 games54% · 169 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireRoddgeee
46% · 302 games56% · 127 games
MiranaXepher
Mirana
54% · 138 games
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed44:30
Geek Fam 36%BOOM Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 1:10:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreSkem
53% · 34 games54% · 84 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterForce
little data53% · 146 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRoddgeee
46% · 248 games54% · 165 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
46% · 354 games51% · 133 games
MiranaxNova
Mirana
51% · 108 games
RubickXepher
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed35:26
Geek Fam 38%BOOM Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkem
43% · 68 games60% · 19 games
SpectreNatsumi
Spectre
Viper
ViperForce
46% · 147 games60% · 132 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickRoddgeee
48% · 202 games54% · 186 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Marci
MarciNARMAN
44% · 240 games49% · 188 games
SnapfireXepher
Snapfire
54% · 132 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 74%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3