?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ravensloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Ravens

Visage
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
d1smar · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
d1smar · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Cara · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
351 picks · 339 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 332 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
238 picks · 242 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 146 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
212 picks · 174 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 545 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
198 picks · 417 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
188 picks · 225 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
Keyd Stars 42%Ravens 58%
The model gave 58% on Ravens — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
51% · 129 games48% · 135 games
Faceless VoidDaaD-
Faceless Void
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
49% · 240 games51% · 239 games
TuskPiPi
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireTavo
47% · 217 games51% · 86 games
BrewmasterBenjaz
Brewmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKingrd
49% · 65 games48% · 191 game
Rubickd1smar
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
55% · 97 games53% · 97 games
SilencerCara
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Keyd Stars 40%Ravens 60%
The model gave 60% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCostabile
57% · 45 games44% · 80 games
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
49% · 201 game54% · 260 games
PuckPiPi
Puck
Mars
MarsTavo
49% · 224 games54% · 105 games
BroodmotherBenjaz
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfireKJ
46% · 207 games51% · 196 games
Rubickd1smar
Rubick
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKingrd
50% · 60 games49% · 96 games
Ogre MagiCara
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed36:17
Keyd Stars 41%Ravens 59%
The model gave 59% on Ravens — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 49:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCostabile
58% · 34 games45% · 116 games
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
57% · 209 games45% · 196 games
Queen of PainPiPi
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTavo
50% · 232 games45% · 184 games
DoomBenjaz
Doom
Tusk
TuskKingrd
56% · 202 games49% · 242 games
Rubickd1smar
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireKJ
45% · 214 games52% · 153 games
Treant ProtectorCara
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 71%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3