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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Wij · 9 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%

Infinity Esports

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 7 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Jupiter · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
349 picks · 337 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 331 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
238 picks · 242 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 145 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
209 picks · 173 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 543 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
197 picks · 416 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:7
Evil Geniuses 63%Infinity Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
44% · 41 game59% · 87 games
UrsaParker
Ursa
Rubick
RubickWisper
41% · 165 games56% · 212 games
PuckLeostyle
Puck
Tusk
TuskChris Luck
50% · 173 games54% · 151 game
DawnbreakerFrank
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsMatthew
45% · 228 games56% · 45 games
WindrangerGenek
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerPanda
38% · 57 games57% · 169 games
UndyingPrada
Undying
Game 2prediction correct43:31
Evil Geniuses 66%Infinity Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 46:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPakazs
54% · 77 games44% · 150 games
TerrorbladeParker
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracChris Luck
57% · 147 games39% · 229 games
Ember SpiritLeostyle
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsWisper
54% · 332 games43% · 119 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Silencer
SilencerMatthew
51% · 85 games42% · 177 games
HoodwinkGenek
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingPanda
54% · 152 games61% · 118 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 77%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2