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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 31 game
58%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
84%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ori · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BoBoKa · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
346 picks · 335 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
335 picks · 328 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
236 picks · 241 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
221 picks · 145 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
206 picks · 170 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 543 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 414 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total87% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Team Aster 74%Aster.Aries 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMonet
48% · 162 games46% · 63 games
Troll WarlordUlu
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 192 games54% · 122 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXwy
43% · 79 games47% · 272 games
TuskWhite丶Album
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
51% · 205 games53% · 228 games
RubickTK
Rubick
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
54% · 205 games51% · 158 games
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct32:29
Team Aster 71%Aster.Aries 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 56:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMonet
51% · 130 games62% · 105 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Visage
VisageXxs
53% · 112 games46% · 176 games
ViperWhite丶Album
Viper
Batrider
BatriderXwy
46% · 138 games54% · 329 games
Marci生死
Marci
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
47% · 624 games53% · 274 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
44% · 102 games48% · 222 games
RubickTK
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 87%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2