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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EHOMEloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
85%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 12 games
83%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Night · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
346 picks · 334 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 328 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
235 picks · 241 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
221 picks · 145 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
205 picks · 170 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 541 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
196 picks · 414 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
LGD Gaming 69%EHOME 31%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
49% · 116 games42% · 60 games
Juggernautmks-
Juggernaut
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 188 games44% · 237 games
TinyNight
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
51% · 153 games53% · 171 game
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Disruptor
Disruptory`
54% · 153 games56% · 116 games
MiranaCatYou
Mirana
42% · 26 games
LichLwwnb
Lich
Game 2prediction missed20:34
LGD Gaming 72%EHOME 28%
The model gave 72% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
50% · 188 games44% · 37 games
Drow Rangermks-
Drow Ranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNothingToSay
45% · 137 games51% · 61 game
Primal BeastNight
Primal Beast
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
51% · 86 games53% · 203 games
Marcixiaoyu154
Marci
Tusk
TuskpLAnet
52% · 262 games53% · 216 games
SnapfireCatYou
Snapfire
47% · 156 games
ClockwerkLwwnb
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct34:12
LGD Gaming 68%EHOME 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordshiro
43% · 54 games48% · 67 games
Ursamks-
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
52% · 257 games50% · 115 games
Marcixiaoyu154
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonpLAnet
52% · 62 games45% · 134 games
TuskNight
Tusk
Bane
Baney`
56% · 179 games52% · 126 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
48% · 110 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3